A vote for ukip will let Labour in says Alex Wickham.

It’s a mantra that we shall be hearing more and more over the months leading up to the next general election.  It usually begins with a statement that the author is sympathetic to much of what ukip stands for and, yes, for a long time Cameron and Co were badmouthing its members but Dave has seen the error of his ways and is now firmly committed to a referendum and immigration reform and will be “watching like a hawk…etc..etc…blah blah”

So now is not the time to be rocking the boat by putting ukip candidates in every seat (especially the marginals) and thus decanting a measure of the Tory vote and letting Labour in.

However, leaving aside the obvious issues (not all the ukip vote comes from former Tory voters / on many issues the views of Cameron and Miliband are interchangeable) there is one major flaw in the Wickham argument.

If it is assumed by many conservative politicians and pundits that a substantial proportion of Tory voters are willing to “desert” to ukip at the ballot box isn’t it a sign that Cameron’s party has alienated a significant element of their core support?  Shouldn’t Wickham and his friends be asking themselves why this has happened AND WHAT THE TORY PARTY SHOULD DO ABOUT IT?

In other words it is a problem for the Tories, not for ukip

While Cameron and his clique are in charge the Tory Party will be exactly like those abusive husbands who regularly beat their wives black and blue then sob uncontrollably and promise to reform when the wife threatens to leave.

For a few days they appear to be thoughtful and caring – then their fists come into action again.

Wickham’s cri de coeur is pure, unadulterated moral blackmail. It’s the eternal siren song of the dodgy salesman. Only a fool would buy into it and, this time, many Tory voters will say they have been fooled once too often….

Pic h/t

Iain Martin applauded Nigel Farage’s response to Bloomgate

it was refreshing to hear a political leader not resort, in a tight spot, to the standard political phrases used by other leaders when something has gone badly wrong. The script usually runs: “I am getting on with the job… we are focussed on doing the right thing… I won’t be distracted by media tittle-tattle…”

But both Iain and Nigel are wrong when they said the “row” was a disaster. The Ukip conference was not a disaster. The Bloom incident was an unwelcome distraction but I doubt if it will have much lasting impact on the public outside the bubble of the political class and their hangers on in the media.

I am a Ukip newbie – I only joined a few months ago so the conference was my first opportunity to meet up with fellow ukippers on a large scale. The Great Hall of Central Hal, Westminster (which can hold 2000 people)  was packed.  There were no corporate  lobbyists, no consultants – just ordinary party members, quite a wide range of people, giving the lie to the stereotype peddled by a media generally hostile or demeaning. Chatting to other attendees at conference I discovered that many of them had memberships going back no further than 2012….this was their first conference and the opportunity to find out they were part of a growing political phenomenon. They, like me, listened to the presentation, put faces to names that previously were only seen on party handouts, chatted easily and eagerly between themselves – and left conference determined to work their socks off for the party

It was only at the end that we learned of the “incident” and it was patently obvious that Bloom was kebabbed. Crick and co. were on his tail like terriers on a ratting expedition because they knew Godfrey has a shortt fuse – and Crick’s weaselly face and sneering voice is perfectly programmed to rile any target. This is why he is such a brilliant investigative reporter. Some reporters disarm their subject with charm in order to reveal the inner man or woman. Crick makes you lose your temper and then it all comes out. He has you on tape and, with some clever cutting and editing the whole event is choreographed to over emphasise the subjects loss of control, red face and angry outburst and to highlight Crick’s feigned innocence and “I only asked” sensitivity.

Bloom is in actual fact  intelligent and well informed and he  has a good track record on issues like pensions and military procurement and is not afraid to think outside the box. Unfortunately there has also been a constant trail of foolish and unsettling incidents of public behaviour that have gradually convinced a substantial number of people inside Ukip that he has become something of a PR liability.

He is clearly a well liked figure in the party but Farage’s angry denunciation of his conduct and decision to suspend the whip was greeted with strong support at conference. As he and other Ukip veterans had pointed out earlier the political class has been thrown into confusion by the rise of Ukip and its continued presence in the polls as a credible fourth (or even third) party – and they want to lash out.

The fact is the political/cultural media just do not know how to deal with a movement made up of political outsiders and whose leaders are not part of the North London dinner party circuit. The “Conservative” media in particular at the Telegraph, Mail and Spectator are highly confused. To them politics is about lobby tittle tattle and gossip in the up market enclaves of Notting Hill, spaces currently uninhabited by Ukip so  they are left with spreading lies and half truths fed to them by the posh, nice but dim student interns from Tory HQ.

Yes  there will be more kebabbing – so our response needs to be honest but also thoughtful, measured and….civilised  Above all remember, when they start trying to kebab you it means they are frightened of you.

It’s really a badge of honour.

Today I am at UKIP’s annual conference  here in London. Earlier this week I attened my first local branch meeting. Yet I am very much a Johnny-come-lately because, although for several years I have sympathised with much that UKIP stands for, I regarded the party as a fringe group which could never win enough votes outside EU elections to even gain a sniff of power – because power is the essence of any political movement, the ability to influence governance either by involvement or pressure.

UKIP also appeared to me to be all about campaigning rather than doing – playing in the haystack rather than trying to find the needle.

Then, as well, I perceived it as a one trick pony, the logical extension of the Referendum Party, using all its energies to advocate an in/out EU plebiscite – then dissolving into dust once one had been held, whatever the result.

This year’s elections changed my mind as well, I suspect, the minds of many others. Diane James achievement in Eastleigh, in particular, initiated a seismic shift in attitude in the minds of those sympathetic to UKIP – and its enemies.

UKIP, its ,members and supporters, is now taken seriously by the political class and their media followers – and that must be a tough call because our political/media establishment is as tightly knit in its symbiotic relationship as any feudal aristocracy or mafia brotherhood. About a thousand families, centred mainly in North London/Notting Hill/Richmond, dominate this nexus, absorbing individual  newcomers and spitting out the has-beens

But now they are faced with a whole group of “outsiders”, most of whom have either never fitted in to the nexus or have existed outside its metropolitan, international worldview.

We lack “connections”. We don’t know anyone from the Guardian or the Telegraph. We know little of Quangos, lobbyists or PR consultants. Our views are not fashionable or politically correct. Most of us probably don’t take exotic holidays or mix with millionaires or celebrities or lobbyists.

But we are not donkeys. We work in a whole variety of jobs. We come from a wide range of educational backgrounds – but we don’t have the contacts or the relatives inside the nexus.

Until now we could be safely ignored, even during elections, for, like sheep we could be herded through certain gates because we bought the myth that the mainstream parties were in competition with each other.

But they are not. They make up a cartel of shifty shadowy figures who, despite their labels, believe in Big Government, high taxes and rule by special interest groups. They are ashamed of our traditional British values and desire to force us into alternative patterns of behaviour for what they perceive to be “our own good”.

However we of the silent majority can challenge the ruling political cartel because, with the emergence of UKIP, we have a political party which has demonstrated the ability to tune with the feelings, convictions and concerns of ordinary folk outside the special interest groups that dominate the cartel……and also, crucially, gain the votes….no wonder they are nervous.

Notice how in the course of this post the pronoun shift from I to us. It marks my own pride in now being just a minor cog in the wheel of a political party that has a golden opportunity to transform our country.

Full credit to those stalwarts who, unlike me, nailed their colours to UKIP’s mast while other fainthearts, like myself, were unwilling to step forward.

You were right – I was wrong.

So remember…never, ever, underestimate the little guy…because one day he could give you a painful surprise…

From his lofty eminence at the top of his pillar on the roof of the offices of The Daily Telegraph, Peter Oborne, the Simeon Stylites of the political media casts his ascetic eye over the comings and goings of lowlier folk and occasionally enriches our muddled lives with exhortations to avoid vice and pursue only virtue.

Such a sagacious utterance sprang from his pen earlier this week when he offered David Cameron the silver bullet that would cause Nigel Farage and UKIP to crash to the ground in a sea of dust and broken bricks.

A vote for Ukip is a vote for a Labour government. Why can’t the Tories get this message across?

Wow – what wisdom…

Only one thing wrong with that, Mr O – many former Tories are turning to UKIP because voting Conservative in 2010 has produced a government that on questions such as the EU, Global Warming, Human Rights, Immigration and taxation has sometimes made “conservative” noises but in terms of action has clearly placed the approval of the chattering classes and their house magazine at the BBC at the top of the agenda.

That’s the trouble of observing the world from the top of a 40 ft pillar – you don’t see much of what is happening on the ground….

Millionaire Nick Clegg is going to use taxpayers money to pay for free school meals for all under sevens in state schools, all 1.5 million of them. Of course nearly 500,000 of them already get free meals as a benefit for low income families so this means that higher income parents will be getting a share of the gravy as well.

I bet those middle class mums at mumsnet will be delighted – an extra £400 to spend per child, all courtesy of £600m from  the hard pressed taxpayer

Naturally the teachers unions are delighted

The National Union of Teachers said pupils of all ages should qualify, adding: ‘Children do not stop being hungry at seven.’

Here’s an idea. Finance this boondoggle from money set aside for teachers salary increases. I’m sure they would be delighted to take one for the kids……

Awaiting his trial David Cameron’s former right hand man and dining companion Andy Coulson is still watching the PM’s back over the growing support for UKIP. He has suggested that Farage and his party can easily be defenestrated via youtube with…

An attack video demolishing UKIP’s dark side, focusing on Farage’s “less pleasant and stranger utterances”

No doubt the posh twentysomething graduate interns at Tory HQ are already working on it so, wishing as always to be helpful to those callow youths, may I suggest this as an example of an obvious Darth Farage vote loser

Surely ordinary folk wouldn’t touch UKIP with a bargepole after watching it?

On second thoughts…..

Both Dan Hodges and Guido report that a slither of “Red Princes” are following in their fathers footsteps and offering themselves as Labour candidates for 2015

Dave Prescott is a member of quite an exclusive club, the so called “red princes and princesses”, whose parents are MPs or former MPs, and who will be contesting seats in 2015. Others include Will Straw, recently selected for Rossendale and Darwin; Euan Blair, who is said to be interested in one of the Coventry seats; and Joe Dromey, who was showing an interest in Lewisham.

Joe Dromey’s  mummy, of course, is Harriet Harman.

Have these young men no shame? Each of them has a parent who was at the very centre of the Labour regime that did everything in it’s power to destroy the very fabric of our country.

It burdened us with a mountain of debt and brought us into the longest lasting recession of modern times.

It allowed a foreign court made up of a motley collection of European academics to overrule the very fabric of our ancient common law

It willingly saddled us with an inefficient and expensive energy policy without any serious attempt to question the voodoo “science” upon which it was based

It deliberately allowed a massive influx of immigrants from every corner of the globe by reducing our border controls to a mere token

It led us into wars for the flimsiest of reasons without any notion of strategic overview and with an underfunded army leading to the killing and maiming of hundreds, maybe thousands, of our brave servicemen and women.

Rather than seek to place themselves in power over us once again perhaps these young men should atone for their parents’ shame by devoting themselves to the humility of good works by working as minimum wage care assistants or cleaners in homes for the elderly.

Guido helpfully points out that PCS (The Public and Commercial Services Union) is very unhappy with Local Government Minister Eric Pickles who wants to stop “check off” where union subs are deducted from salary – thus funding the union directly from taxpayers and saving unions the costs of collecting it themselves

What is PCS?

The Public and Commercial Services Union (PCS) is one of the largest trade unions in the UK, with around 270,000 members.

We are organised throughout the civil service and government agencies, making us the UK’s largest civil service trade union.

Naturally PCS links the Eric Pickles move with their general campaign against “cuts”. No doubt there will be the usual choreographed banner waving photo op demonstrating high levels of PCS “anger” – but how representative of the PCS membership is the leadership?  Not much if the turnout at the annual PCS election is any indication……less than 10% bothered to vote…

Over the last fortnight or so those bastions of the right wing press, the Telegraph and Mail, have been feeding us the narrative that David Cameron has shot the UKIP fox by sounding tough on the EU and immigration, chatting to Tory backbenchers over a Downing Street BBQ and listening to elections guru Lynton Crosby – all on the basis of one poll (several others give a different picture)

Doubtless the bright young things at Tory HQ have been schmoozing the lobby correspondents and political hacks at the DT/DM who have responded accordingly. After all they inhabit the same Westminster political/media village and, let’s face it, that village is far away from Norfolk, South Shields, Somerset or even the London suburbs, not so much geographically as temperamentally.

This is why they find the rise of UKIP as incomprehensible – it simply does not fit within the confines of the political box that constrains their view. They can only interpret events in terms of Con/Lab/Lib because….well…that’s the way it’s always been, ennit….

What they have failed to grasp is the possibility that a bunch of outsiders, with little or no contact with media hacks, lobbyists, academics, civil servants and other members of the establishment elite should begin to insert themselves into the body politic by making inroads into the electorate.

UKIP might well dip in certain polling reports as the media files the party under B for Blip – but there are certain key points that the “experts” need to remember

UKIP now have a substantial presence on quite a few local councils, controlling one and either holding the balance of power or forming the opposition in several others – party members are getting the experience of local government.

Over the last few months tens of thousands of people have joined UKIP, getting the party closer to the first goal of overtaking the Lib Dems 42,000

The party is busily consolidating and professionalising itself, using the next few months to prepare for the EU and local elections next May.

Unlike Con/Lab/Lib these new members display a degree of energy and enthusiasm that has long since drained away from the established parties

Issues such as EU membership and Immigration have only begun to be part of public debate because for many years UKIP was the only party that consistently attempted to confront them.

Above all this, however, it is not just through “policies” that political parties begin to gain traction. It is when the rest of the electorate realise that a substantial number of their fellow voters are willing to nail their colours to the party’s mast.

There has long been a disconnect between ordinary folk and the political class, evidenced by lower voter turnouts and declining party memberships. Voters began politicians and the press and broadcast “journalists” who supposedly “hold them to account”   as performers in a carefully choreographed shadow play that demanded a submissive and silent audience which could only cheer or boo on cue….a bit like the BBC’s HIGNFY

But now UKIP has given the audience the opportunity not only to get up onto the stage but also the chance to send the old established “star performers” out of the stage door and onto the pavement…

….and, believe me, the old guard don’t like it – and they will play every dirty trick in the book to keep UKIP out of the loop and break it.

Fellow UKIP members – you have been warned!!!!!

So it’s official – schools exist not to be places of learning where children acquire the social, intellectual and emotional skills to inherit and improve on their common cultural inheritance but are essentially child minding facilities designed to relieve parents of the responsibility of bringing up their own offspring.

The traditional 9am to 3pm school day does not always fit the demands of working parents, and not enough schools offer before- and after-school activities that meet childcare requirements, according to a new Government report. Childcare is a “major concern” for families, with parents often finding it difficult to arrange the right care at the right price, it says.

It’s convenient with employers because it helps to expand the workforce and maintain a pool of cheap labour. It sends a message to consumers that it’s fine to spend rather than save – goodbye deferred gratification, hello I want it now. Above all it binds families closer to the state and undermines the spirit of independence, the sheer awkward bloody mindedness that made our forefathers suspicious of government.

It’s a poisoned chalice – but do we have the will to dash it from our lips?