Lord Ashcroft’s recent poll of Tory/Labour “Battleground Marginals” has actually thrown up some interesting figures for UKIP. If you look at Page 4 (Voting Intentions) there are four seats where UKIP are within eight percentage points of the leading party
| Currently held by | CON | LAB | LIB DEM | UKIP | OTHER | Change for UKIP since 2010 | |
| GREAT YARMOUTH | CON | 32 | 34 | 5 | 28 | 1 | +13% |
| THANET SOUTH | CON | 32 | 31 | 7 | 27 | 3 | +21% |
| THURROCK | CON | 27 | 37 | 4 | 29 | 3 | +22% |
| WALSALL NORTH | LAB | 21 | 37 | 8 | 30 | 3 | +25% |
The figures show that UKIP has certainly got everything to play for in these constituencies – and they give the lie to the current message of “piling up the protest votes and coming second”
Moreover, looking at the rest of the marginals in most of them an increase in support for UKIP will lose those currently held by the Tories to Labour and also deny them the chance of gaining Labour held marginals. So the possibility of UKIP MPs in the next parliament can no longer be derided as a “swivel-eyed” fantasy by the political class and their symbiotic partners in the media.
Looks like the “UKIP peaking and now on the way out” narrative being assiduously peddled by Tory HQ and their cheerleaders at the Telegraph needs to be filed under “False Rumours”…
