The Aged P

OK – let’s get it out of the way…I was wrong in Message #11

BTW…….waving my fist defiantly in the face of the gods of polling and punditry let me make my prediction now……A TORY WIN WITH A SMALL OVERALL  MAJORITY…..excelsior!!!

I was clearly O/Ding on that most tempting of political drugs Wishful Thinking. Instead of gaining the 336 seats that would have provided an overall majority of 10 the Tories were just 30 MPs short.

Here are the figures compared with 2005

Notice how the unequal sizing of constituencies favours Labour. Although the Tories had a greater percentage of the popular vote than Labour in 2005 they won fewer seats and, the other side of the same coin, Labour’s lower percentage than the Tories in 2005 still got them 50 more seats.

Still the key word in that diagram comes on the 2010 overall majority line – “none”. It means that no single party can form a majority government on it’s own. So, although Cleggmania proved a deflated balloon, the  Liberal Democrats still hold the balance between Labour and Conservatives  so young Mr Clegg has been on the receiving end of a flirting offensive from Brown and Cameron whose very transparency would make Jane Austen blush.

David Cameron opened talks with Nick Clegg today about a possible power sharing deal after making a “big, open and comprehensive offer” to the Lib Dem leader in the wake of Britain’s first hung parliament since 1974.

After the closest election race for a generation the Conservatives were left with 307 seats, a net gain of 97 but still 19 short of a majority.

Gordon Brown, who returned to Downing Street at 7am, said that he wanted to try to form a government in the national interest with the Lib Dems and other parties.

The constitutional convention in this situation is fairly set by precedent. The sitting Prime Minister has the first bite of the cherry in forming an administration even though he does not lead the largest party. Only when he feels he would be defeated fairly quickly on a vote of confidence does he then tender his resignation to the Queen who would then, on the advice of her officials, send for the leader of the largest party (in this case David Cameron)

But Clegg has already delivered a pre emptive strike by re iterating his pre election declaration that his first inclination would be to work with the largest party. So, while for the time being Brown remains brooding in Downing Street as Prime Minister Cameron began to  take soundings with the Lib Dems to work out and negotiate parameters of support.

He really had three options.

1. Proceed as a minority administration with every serious parliamentary vote liable to spring the trap of a confidence motion. Though at first sight this could  appear to be a kamikaze mission in reality it might not prove quite so suicidal. This is because electioneering is expensive for political parties who rely on donations and subscriptions to finance their campaigns and, at present they are spent out. Additionally no electorate wants all the inconvenience and distraction of political campaigning inflicted on them within months of the first one and a party or parties which forced a new election might find themselves punished in the polls
2. Run a minority administration through informal understandings with other parties arranged during regular unofficial contacts.
3. Include representatives of other parties in his cabinet thus involving them in the formulation of policy. This would be a coalition which might even subsequently manifest itself as an electoral pact in a future campaign – something which actually happened in 1918 and 1931.

What he has chosen to do is option number two. In a carefully worded statement he listed certain areas where there already appear to be some overlap of agreement with Lib Dem support – education, green issues, lower taxes. He also suggested that a Tory government would work with other parties on investigating possible ways of reforming the voting system which currently, as in the USA, allows candidates to win with a plurality rather than a majority of the votes cast. This is always a hot button issue with third parties.

What he didn’t say was that his government would introduce it – merely investigate the possibilities.

He needed to give an overall impression of flexibility to attract Lib Dem support but he also had to draw some definite lines in the sand to avoid antagonising his own supporters.

He stressed that the ‘bulk” of the Conservative manifesto must be implemented.

He reiterated his line on Europe, immigration, and defence.  That looks like a commitment to Trident, no amnesty for illegal immigrants and – most challengingly – his manifesto position on the EU.  Team Cameron know that these are talismanic symbols to activists of real conservatism – which is why he stressed them.

Cameron, having set out his stall, will now leave key figures in both parties to hammer out some basis of agreement over the next couple of days. If successful then he can then assure the Queen that he has a government that can do business. If it all goes pear shaped then Clegg might then try to work out some sort of agreement with the Labour Party. But public opinion might not be too happy with such a deal. In a recent poll 81% of respondents said that in a hung parliament the party with the most votes and MPs should form the government.

And, over everything, looms the black shadow of the massive deficit that is the legacy of the Brown government. During the campaign this was rarely mentioned but in most quarters there is an understanding that there will have to be substantial cuts in government spending coupled with some tax rises. Both Cameron and Clegg realise some very tough decisions will have to be made and it is quite likely that these cold, hard facts will, in themselves, be sufficient to bring their forces together.

Interesting days indeed…..