Ignore Toby Harnden. How apparently shrewd businessmen like the Barclay Brothers can pay this man thousands of pounds a year to sit in front of CNN and then regurgitate their take on US politics absolutely beats me. At the very least you might have expected him to take a day or so to reflect on a range of possible outcomes for Palin after her shock resignation. But that’s not for our Toby – he jumps in feet first even quicker than Thomas M deFrank of the dying New York Daily News. After all Toby knows far more about AGIA, building codes and the Law of the Sea than “an intellectually idle, self-absorbed, overweeningly ambitious empty vessel” like Palin….

Very few of the US punditry and even fewer of the Brits (except Toby Harnden, of course) have much knowledge of Alaskan politics – it’s like asking David Frum about UKIP – so take anything they say with a pinch of salt. Just remember that Palin, although a Republican, ran against the GOP establishment and won because the good ‘ol boys were mired in corruption. Ever wonder why the Alaska GOP never defended her against the unhinged rantings of Celtic Diva and her cronies and the groundless ethics complaints? Why State Senator Ramras is pushing against AGIA? Because they were hoping that she would not stand down before 2010 and they could slide one of their own into the Governor’s Mansion via some wheeler dealing in the primaries. By handing over to Lt Gov Parnell now she gives him well over a year to get settled in office and ensures he gets a flying start in the primaries. This allows her to help like minded Palin Republicans gain some traction for the next round of legislative elections.

Until the VP nomination her relationship with Alaska Democrats was fairly relaxed. Although she had R after her name she was perceived as a kind of bipartisan Governor. This ended immediately after the Republican Convention. Her speech sucked the oxygen out of the Obama campaign. McCain’s poll numbers leapt and money poured in. Axelrod orders went out to the Alaska Democrats that Palin needed to be destroyed. The MSM was mobilised and hundreds of reporters were sent to Alaska to dig for dirt (far more than were ever sent to Chicago) and Axelrod’s efforts helped to create and sustain an avalanche of hate and vituperation unsurpassed even in the murky world of Alaskan politics.

Harnden and other commentators have made much of the recent Vanity Fair hit piece by the left wing ex NYT hack Todd Purdum. In fact it’s a shallow, poorly researched rehash of disdainful comments about Palin from anonymous McCain campaign staffers plus a handful of interviews with Alaskans who have an axe to grind about her. Like most of the Conde Nast magazine empire VF is losing circulation and advertising revenue by the bucketload. I don’t imagine many copies are bought in WalMart. But the pundits and style gurus love it so they imagine the whole of America hangs on it’s words.

What Palin chooses to do on the national scene is up to her. We do know that over the last few months she had had thousands of requests to do interviews, fundraisers and overseas engagements. I would guess that next week the local post office will have to use more staff to deliver the invitations. Republican incumbents and hopefuls will be selling their souls for her endorsement. Whatever she chooses to do about the White House in 2012 she will become the de facto leader of the GOP.

This woman is not a conventional politician. She ignores the rule book. The Beltway pundits and the party hacks can’t fit her into any pigeon hole. She makes their heads explode. But when she went to Auburn recently, a blue district in a blue state, 20,000 people turned up just to watch her take part in a charity walk. They didn’t come to see and hear the Governor of Alaska. They came to see Sarah Palin.

As Barry Goldwater Jr said of her “She’s attractive. She’s smart. She got the right message and she doesn’t take any crap from anybody.” In an America rapidly falling out of love with an over hyped snake oil salesman from Chicago that message might just start resonating with people outside the conservative base.

Sorry, Toby – I think you might well be seeing a lot more of Mrs Palin than you think…time maybe for a liitle bit more valium?